Scenarios for the migration issue in Northern Uganda
Three-day scenario planning training
Scenario planning is a way to get a grip on these types of questions as a basis for strategic decision-making. During a three-day training, approximately 20 participants per district learned the steps of the scenario process. Based on their own case, they worked out compact scenarios and thought about challenges and options. This provided interesting insights, from the very significant influence of climate change to the importance of lobbying the national government. Without exception, the participants were enthusiastic about the method and understood the concept well.
Scenario planning in a development context
After previous experiences in a similar context in Jordan, Jeroen and Linda also went home with an important insight. In the Netherlands, scenario planning is often used to weigh the relevance and risks of the success of a particular option. This works differently in a development context. In principle, the most important options, such as improving education, care and infrastructure, are always relevant. It is much more about the balance between large and small interventions and choosing a number of options, while partners must be sought for the other options. Nevertheless, scenario planning for migration issues is a valuable tool because they almost always have a high degree of uncertainty. Scenarios offer the opportunity to get a grip on this uncertainty.
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