Housing market research municipality Berg en Dal
Instead of working with traditional forecasts and forecasts, the municipality of Berg en Dal decided in collaboration with local corporations to scenarios for the housing market research. Through our Social Scenario Planning tool, we supported the municipality in this and involved external stakeholders, such as housing associations and tenants' associations.
Website Berg en Dal (28-12-2018)
Situation
The importance of a housing vision is growing for municipalities. This is the basis for performance agreements with housing corporations. You do not draw up such a vision for the short term, it must look ahead. A clear, shared view of the housing market is therefore necessary. This is also the case for the municipality of Berg en Dal. Many studies are based on linear predictions based on historical patterns and (too) beautiful wish images. However, the municipality of Berg en Dal decided to use scenarios. Together with the local housing corporations Oosterpoort and Waardwonen.
Method
In the process, we paid a lot of attention to involving various stakeholders, such as the corporations, but also tenant associations from the municipality. By means of our online tool Social Scenario Planning, they were able to contribute ideas during every phase of the project and give their input and reactions to interim results. Together with the community members and us, the municipality of Berg en Dal went through the following steps to arrive at the end result:
1. Scope determination
The scope of the research was determined on the basis of a workshop and contributions to the Social Scenario Planning tool.
2. Collect trends
With the help of workshops, expert interviews, Jester's trend library and trend brainstorm, we mapped external developments.
3. Analyze trends
By means of an online survey, desk research, online discussions and workshop, we analyzed the trends and determined the axis cross.
4. Draw up scenarios
In the Social Scenario Planning community, the community members provided causes and characteristics of the scenarios, which we processed into stories about the future. The stakeholders on the online tool refined the scenarios for a number of weeks.
Result
The scenario process resulted in four inspiring, diverse scenarios about the housing market in the municipality of Berg en Dal and the region. Based on the qualitative scenarios, spatial consultancy created Companions quantitative calculations in the field of relocations and housing demand. This gave rise to insights into the bandwidths in terms of population development and housing demand for Berg en Dal for the next ten years. These insights are incorporated into new housing policy, both by the municipality and by the corporations.
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