Scenario planningGet to grips with the turbulent environment
Develop robust strategy for different scenarios
Scenario planning is a method in which you develop multiple plausible visions of the future. You will explore the development of core uncertainties and the opportunities and risks that this entails. Scenarios are extreme but conceivable stories of the future. Each scenario has specific opportunities and options. Options that fit in every scenario are robust and a good foundation for your strategy.
Scenarios are stories. They are works of art, rather than scientific analyzes. Maybe the reliability of their content is less important than the types of conversations and decisions they spark.
- Arie de Geus
What is scenario planning used for?
Which strategic options should I take up?
Validation of strategy
How future-proof is my strategy?
What risks do I have to take into account?
How can I renew?
How can I organize my organization for the future?
Complex decision making
Should I invest or not? In which scenario should I scale up and in which scenario should I not?
What is and what is not scenario planning?
Scenarios are ...
Images of the future
Scenarios think through uncertainty.
You cannot influence scenarios, you have to take them into account.
Scenarios are the corners of the playing field, designed to stretch and challenge your current thinking.
Consistent and plausible 'stories'
Scenarios depict what the future will look like may not be see. They form the basis for strategy and innovation.
Scenarios are not ...
Predictions of the future
Reality will contain ingredients from multiple scenarios.
Choices for certain future directions
You do not choose one scenario. They can all become reality.
Sensitivity analyzes on a business case
Scenarios are not a variation on a forecast, but explore multiple uncertainties.
Visions or strategic plans
Scenarios describe the possible environment. In the vision and strategy you describe how to respond to this.
Scenario planning in 6 steps
Step 1: Determine scope
Determine the questions about the future, time horizon, boundaries and stakeholders that can influence the future.
Step 2: Collect trends
Make an inventory of trends in the environment.
Step 3: Analyze trends
Determine the impact and uncertainty of trends. Also determine the degree of coherence (cross-impact) between the trends. The aim is to arrive at critical uncertainties.
Step 4: Draw up scenarios
Determine the axes and elaborate the possible scenarios into vivid future images.
Step 5: Determine strategic options
Determine the opportunities and risks in the scenarios. And generate new strategic options. Score the relevance of the options per scenario. And consider how future-proof your current strategy is.
Online tool: Social Scenario Planning
Create future scenarios online with all stakeholders
- Exploring the future together
- Better results due to richer input
- Greater support for the result
- Shorter lead time
Online tool: Environment monitor
Monitor trends and scenarios
- Insight into the impact and urgency of trends
- Insight into the probability of scenarios
- Insight into the relevance of strategic options
- Conduct a strategic dialogue online
The world is changing. What do you do?
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